Today’s Republican Party cannot be described as a single entity; rather, it ought to be referred to as a loose confederation of groups, some big, some small. The major factions within the Republican Party are the Tea Party, the Libertarian Party, and the Christian Right, or social conservatives. While these groups share many common ideologies, their dogma differs in many areas as well. These differences will make it difficult for them to throw their support behind any single candidate at the 2012 ratifying convention, and thus make it difficult or them to beat Obama.

In my opinion, the Republican field is pretty weak. The strongest candidate, or at least the candidate who polls the strongest, Mitt Romney, is often criticized for his passage of  “RomneyCare” in 1994, a health care plan similar to Obama’s. On screen, he looks like the suave main character of a cheesy NBC soap opera, but comes across as boring, as though he lacks personality and charisma. Many conservative Republicans may agree with his platform, but it will be difficult for them to get truly excited about such a dull candidate.

However, compared to much of the field, Romney is fairly moderate. With Tea Partiers, or “wing nuts” as I like to call them, like Michelle Bachmann and Herman Cain, and Libertarian candidate Ron Paul, in the running, most people would look moderate, or at least slightly rational. Right now, only Cain is making a move in the polls: According to a CNN News poll yesterday he is tied with Romney at 17%. Most Republicans, though, must be voting for his charisma, not his platform, because if they were to take a close look at what he stands for they may discover how misguided he is about the state of our country right now. For example, in a recent Wall Street Journal interview, Cain said, “Don’t blame Wall Street. Don’t blame the big banks. If you don’t have a job and you’re not rich, blame yourself.” But while Romney lacks too much charisma, Cain seems to have plenty for both candidates. During  interviews or debates, Cain is constantly willing to provide a witty one-liner, followed by a toothy smile. I fact, it’s almost impossible not to like the guy on first glance; until one actually starts listening to what he has to say. It’s only then that, while Romeny may be the boring one, he at least has a plausible platform. Cain, unfortunately, doesn’t.

At this point, Texas Governor Rick Perry seems to have run his course at the top of the polls. He came out strong, had one good debate, stayed at the top of the polls for a couple weeks, and now is in steady decline. Poor debate performances, coupled with criticisms over his use of executive orders as governor of Texas and several controversial public statements, have placed Perry solidly in third place. For instance, at the recent Values Voter Summit, a social conservatives convention, the Southern Baptist Convention leader, Pastor Robert Jeffrees, said Mormonism is a “cult,” and that Planned Parenthood, a government-run program that, among other things, offers abortions, is a “slaughterhouse for the unborn,” then proceeded to welcome Perry to the stage. When Republican candidate Jon Huntsman went on CNN the other day and called Jeffrees a “moron,” the man immediately garnered my respect. This type of rhetoric is certainly not helping Perry in the polls right now, and it’s definitely not going to help him at the republican ratifying convention.

Of course, Perry is not out of it yet; we still have more than a year before election day. I personally think Herman Cain will soon begin to fade, and Perry and Romeny will again spar for the nomination, with Romeny coming out the clear victor. While he may not be as charismatic as Ronald Reagan (a Republican Party hero, despite the fact he enacted several policies that doomed our economy to eventual failure), or as rough-and-tumble looking as Theodore Roosevelt (who died from a disease contracted while exploring uncharted sections of the Amazon River in his mid-50’s), he has the political ability and ideology to win the nomination, but probably not the general election come next November.